A Dynamic Factor Model for Nowcasting Household Consumption

Authors

  • Az Zahra Amon Ra Department of Statistics, IPB University, Bogor, Indonesia
  • Khairil Anwar Notodiputro Department of Statistics, IPB University, Bogor, Indonesia
  • Pika Silvianti Department of Statistics, IPB University, Bogor, Indonesia

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.29244/ijsa.v6i2p202-212

Keywords:

deseasonalized, factor analysis, gross domestic product, quartimax, varimax

Abstract

A Dynamic Factor Model (DFM) is one of the time series models that can be used to forecast within a very short period in the future known as nowcasting. This model can be used to accommodate the frequency difference that exists between monthly explanatory variables and a response variable which is measured quarterly. This model has been commonly used in economics especially to forecast household consumption for the purpose of constructing economic policies. The economic condition of a country can be reflected in the country's Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Consumption is an important component of GDP because of its large proportion of GDP. One of the household economic activities to meet the various needs of goods and services is referred to as household consumption. This paper discusses the DFM to forecast household consumption based on the varimax and quartimax rotations. The results show that both rotational methods can be used for transmitting household consumption with the same precision.

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References

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Published

2022-08-31

How to Cite

Amon Ra, A. Z., Notodiputro, K. A., & Silvianti, P. (2022). A Dynamic Factor Model for Nowcasting Household Consumption. Indonesian Journal of Statistics and Its Applications, 6(2), 202–212. https://doi.org/10.29244/ijsa.v6i2p202-212

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