TY - JOUR AU - Dinata, Syalam Ali Wira AU - Azka, Muhammad AU - Hasanah, Primadina AU - Suhartono, Suhartono AU - Gamal, Moh Danil Hendry PY - 2021/06/30 Y2 - 2024/03/29 TI - Comparison of Short-Term Load Forecasting Based on Kalimantan Data JF - Indonesian Journal of Statistics and Its Applications JA - IJSA VL - 5 IS - 2 SE - Articles DO - 10.29244/ijsa.v5i2p243-259 UR - https://ijsa.stats.id/index.php/ijsa/article/view/815 SP - 243-259 AB - <p>This paper investigates a case study on short term forecasting for East &nbsp;Kalimantan, with emphasis on special days, such as public holidays. A time series of load demand electricity&nbsp; recorded at hourly intervals contains more than one seasonal pattern.&nbsp; There is a great attraction in using a modelling time series method that is able to capture triple seasonalities.&nbsp; The Triple SARIMA model has been adapted for this purpose and competitive for modelling load.&nbsp;&nbsp;Using the least squares method to estimate the coefficients in a triple SARIMA model, followed by model building, model assumptions&nbsp; and comparing model criteria, we propose and demonstration&nbsp; the triple Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average model <strong>&nbsp;</strong>with AIC 290631.9 and SBC 290674.2 as the best model for this study. The Triple seasonal ARIMA is one of the alternative strategy to propose accurate forecasts of&nbsp; electricity load Kalimantan data for planning, operation&nbsp; maintenance and&nbsp; market related activities.</p> ER -